Patriots Reach 16-0

And the web site has been updated accordingly.

One last Christmas present for you all...

New SuperPower Rankings, of course, and an update on the Patriots' blitz through the entire NFL.

The Upset Special for the week is Miami beating the Bengals.

Can someone explain to me why Atlanta is favored over Seattle, even with the Seahawks having nothing to play for?

I was going to add something else really insightful, but I forgot it. But here are the teams that could get each pick of the NFL Draft, in selection order for all rounds. I'm discounting strength of schedule because that's too hard to look up and I'm not sure of the formula anyway.

1. Dolphins
2. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (last three must lose and must have all of first three win)
3. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (last three must lose and must have two out of first three win)
4. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (fourth and fifth must lose and must have one out of first three win; Chiefs must lose)
5. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first two must win and must have one out of next three lose; Jets must win; 49ers must lose and must have all of previous three win)
6. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first three must win and must have two out of next three lose; 49ers must lose and must have two out of previous three win)
7. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first three must win and must have all of next three lose; 49ers must lose and must have one out of previous three win)
8. Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers (first three must win and must have 49ers lose; four in-between must lose and must have 49ers win)
9. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have one out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have all of first four win)
10. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have two out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have three of first four win)
11. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have three out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have two out of first four win)
12. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have all of first four lose; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must lose and must have one out of first four win; Saints must lose)
13. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (Panthers, Broncos, and Bengals must win and must have one out of last six lose; Bears must win)
14. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have two out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have five of previous six win)
15. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have three out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have four of previous six win)
16. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have four out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have three of previous six win)
17. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have five out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have two of previous six win)
18. Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (first three must lose and must have both of next two win; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must win and must have Redskins or Vikings lose)
19. Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (first three must lose and must have one of next two win; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must win and must have Redskins and Vikings lose; Saints must win and must have Redskins or Vikings lose)
20. Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Saints (first four must lose and must have Bucs and (Browns OR Titans) win; Saints must make playoffs)
21. Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (first four must lose and must have one of next three win; last two must win and must have one out of previous three lose)
22. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (Jaguars must lose and must have all of next four win; last two must win and must have two out of previous three lose)
23. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (Jaguars must lose and must have three out of next four win; last two must win and must have all of previous three lose)
24. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Jaguars must lose and must have two out of next four win; last three must win and must have one out of previous four lose)
25. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Jaguars must lose and must have one out of next four win; last three must win and must have two out of previous four lose)
26. Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Packers must lose and must have Jaguars win; last three must win and must have three out of previous four lose)
27. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (last three must win and must have four preceding all lose; first two must lose and must have Packers win)
28. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers (last four must win and must have Jaguars lose)
29. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars (Jaguars must win and must have Packers lose)
30. Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers (Packers must win and must have Colts lose)
31. SB loser (Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Seahawks/Bucs/Jaguars/Giants/Browns/Titans/Redskins/Vikings/Saints) (last five must make playoffs)
32. SB winner (Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Seahawks/Bucs/Jaguars/Giants/Browns/Titans/Redskins/Vikings/Saints) (last five must make playoffs)

Golden Bowl Tournament Semifinals

I only had to make decisions on two races, and only then because the vote (two for each match) split.

#5 LSU v. #8 Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
The mass of red in the stands of the Cotton Bowl turn the tide when a late comeback attempt by the Hokies ends just short of the first-down marker on fourth down. But what relative home field giveth, it can also taketh away. The #3 and #12 offenses in the country promise to light up the scoreboard - but not if the #9 and #20 defenses (the latter of which gives up the third-fewest yards per game) have anything to say about it. LSU relies on its #12 rushing attack, but it will have to contend with the #11 run defense of the Sooners. Oklahoma is more balanced, with a #18 rushing game and #26 passing game, but LSU is #18 and #17 at stopping the run and pass, respectively. It's like they're set up to counter each other!

#2 Georgia v. #11 USC (Rose Bowl)
Ohio State gets a surprise from a Georgia team that comes ready to match them on defense, as the Buckeye offense is exposed in a tight 7-6 Georgia victory that ends on an interception by the Bulldog defense snuffing a late comeback attempt. Things don't get any easier for the Bulldogs, as they now have to travel far from home to play a team that some say should be seeded a lot higher. USC's defense is not much worse than Ohio State's - fourth in points, second in total yardage, eighth in passing defense, fourth in run defense - but it also does not have that great an offense, and if Georgia can handle Ohio State they can handle USC. As with Ohio State, USC's offensive strength comes on the run.

All polls expire New Year's Day at 5pm PT.

Running Playoff and SNF Week 17 Watch

I'll be updating this post throughout the day and not creating any new posts. New changes:
-A Browns loss cinches up the division for the Steelers. And they're losing at the moment.
-A Packers loss cinches up the #1 seed for the Cowboys. And they're losing at the moment. Not even Favre love is likely to save NBC.
-The Panthers are out with a loss, so Bucs-Panthers is out on Sunday Night.
I'll report on the results as they come in. Jags are beating the Raiders which could cinch up the 5 seed. Giants are beating the Bills which should cinch a playoff spot. Saints losing to the Eagles at home.

Bills have taken the lead over the Giants.

Giants got down to 4th and G on the 1 but could not score. That's proving to be an interesting game.

Giants just got an INT return for a TD to retake the lead. The Bears look like they will relegate the Packers to a 2 seed.

Bears knock off the Packers, so the Cowboys and Packers have nothing to play for. That means next week's game is meaningless enough that Favre might not play, meaning NBC might shy away from it. Titans-Colts may now be a virtual lock, assuming the Titans end the day still with a shot at the playoffs.

Giants have opened up a big lead and are probably playoff-bound. Bengals knocked off the Browns so the Steelers win the AFC North.

Jags beat Raiders. Here's the AFC Playoff Picture:

• As mentioned, the Steelers win the AFC North.
• The win by the Jags and the loss by the Browns cinches up a 5 seed for the Jags. A Titans win ties them with the Browns for the 6 seed and likely cinches up Titans-Colts as the favorite, or at least top competitor with Packers-Lions.
• I doubt MNF really comes into play here, but the Steelers did win earlier in the week, so the Chargers are at risk of a 4 seed.

Giants over the Bills now official. Eagles defeat Saints. Here's the NFC Playoff Picture:

• Giants win to move to 10-5 and lock up a playoff spot. Vikings still pending. Saints lose to move to 1.5 games back, and now desperately need the Redskins to win to even be able to come down to a tiebreaker. If Washington beats Minnesota, then both Washington and Minnesota lose Week 17, and the Saints win next week, then I believe everyone would have 8 losses and, as described in my previous Flex Scheduling Watch, the Saints would be plucked by the tiebreaker. But again, there is only one scenario in which the Saints move into the playoffs. Now if the Vikings win, they're in.
• Dallas is now the 1, Green Bay the 2. Tampa Bay and Seattle are playing now for the 3, and the Bucs have just taken a 3-point lead.

Let's move into the afternoon games.

Bucs behind in a tight one against the 49ers. Titans leading Jets, Seahawks demolishing Ravens.

Two games are very interesting, the Bucs and Titans games.

Jets are driving and attempting to come back.

TO on downs, then Titans pick up a first and they will keep their playoff hopes alive. Titans-Colts a good bet for next week on NBC.

Meanwhile Bucs are down against the 49ers. Not the way they want to enter the playoffs. Seahawks still leading big.

Seahawks win, and the Bucs go down despite a late comeback, so the Seahawks will get the 3.

In the AFC, Titans and Browns are tied for the final playoff spot. I've heard that the Titans would hold a tiebreaker over the Browns and thus would only need a win to get in. Of course, it's against the Colts. This pick is very tenuous, and there's still a chance that NBC will spring Brett Favre love on us, but there are two things against that: 1) The Packers are in the playoffs, so unlike last year this is not going to be Favre's last game period, and 2) The Packers aren't playing for anything, so expect Favre to get limited playing time.

Final prediction: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts.

Actual selection: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (just announced on NBC itself).

Happy Blog-day to meeeeee!

One year ago today - December 22, 2006 - I huddled up in the shadow of a bus stop, cracked open a laptop, and wrote the very first post in the history of Da Blog.

At right is how it looked that first day. As you can see, it didn't look much different from how it looks today. Of course, the sidebar was a lot smaller and less cluttered than it is today, but if you look around, both of the elements on it are still on the sidebar and will probably stay there for some time in the foreseeable future.

For weeks I was the only person to see Da Blog. Slowly, the audience grew, and more and more people discovered what I had to say about... well... just about anything. Once, I got excited to see even one or two people read Da Blog in a single day. Last Monday, a whopping 25 visits were registered by SiteMeter. December 10 saw an incredible 45 visits.

Okay, so that isn't really all that much, SiteMeter counts my own recent visits, and none of you vote on my polls enough to properly justify them. Still, it's a great leap forward from even the summer. I've gone from just barely topping 100 visits a month in August and September to getting 100 visits in just the past week, and two straight months of over 300 visits. December has already topped November and it isn't even over yet; the 400 mark, once unfathomable, now looks like a certainty.

I suspect a big reason for the boom has been Da Blog's increasing emphasis on sports, especially football. (Specifically, I've noticed a lot of referrals from Google searches relating to the SNF Flex Scheduling watch. I'm the number 1 hit for "who will be flexed in week 17 of sunday night football". If you've come in for the answer for that question, I'll be live-blogging the Week 16 football day from my computer tomorrow.) With the college season proper over and the NFL season winding down, expect Da Blog to de-emphasize that in the first part of the new year. I hope to get back to taking care of my other projects, such as the 100 Greatest Movies Project. Later in the year, I'll have a new way of covering the elections. And if anyone has any other non-sports interests they'd like to see represented, that would be hunky dory as well. During the past year, I also launched a web site, which will continue to grow and change in the coming year, including the addition of several new sections.

I'm going to be starting 2008 in two new classes and hope to get better focused on my classes, something my football-related projects have been distracting me from, and also work to make sure I don't find myself kicked out of any classes, and thus kicked out of the university entirely. But I also hope to spend time in the second year of Da Blog to make it as memorable as the first.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 15

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Steelers (@Baltimore) and Browns (v. San Francisco) tied. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers hold tiebreaker by beating Browns twice.
• AFC South: Colts clinched due to tiebreaker.
• AFC West: Chargers clinched.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags (@Houston) and the loser of Steelers-Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans (@Indianapolis) a game back; the Titans and Jags split the season series and the scenario that ends with them tied gives the Titans the divisional tiebreaker. The Texans and Bills are two back; the Bills are out after losing to both the Steelers and Browns, but the Texans have lost only to the Browns, and got swept by Tennessee. If the Titans and Steelers lose out, the Browns win at least once, and the Texans win out, the Texans would still lose on a conference tiebreaker.
• AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Patriots beat the Colts to cinch #1. Colts hold #2 outright. The other two division leaders, the Chargers (@Oakland) and the winner of Steelers-Browns, all have five losses each.
• NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
• NFC North: Packers clinched.
• NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints and swept the season series to get the tiebreaker. The trend of last-place teams taking the South the following year continues. Good news, Falcons fans!
• NFC West: Seahawks clinched.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants (vs. New England on NFL Network) and Vikings (@Denver) would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins (v. Dallas, would result in too many primetime appearances for Cowboys) and Saints (@Chicago) one back. Lions, Panthers (@Tampa Bay), and Cardinals two back. Vikings and Lions split the season series and the Lions would have a better divisional record under the scenario that ends with them tied. But for the Vikings to lose out means the Redskins get at least one win, and Washington already beat Detroit. Carolina and New Orleans split the season series and would finish with identical division records as well in the scenario that ends with them tied. Against the AFC South, it's NO 1-3, CAR 0-4; against the NFC West, NO 2-2, CAR 4-0, so Carolina wins the common-games tiebreaker. Several different scenarios are now possible if the Vikings go 0-2 and the Redskins go 1-1: Vikings-Redskins-Panthers, Vikings-Redskins-Cardinals, Vikings-Redskins-Saints (if the Saints go 1-1 and Carolina loses at least once), Vikings-Redskins-Panthers-Cardinals, and Vikings-Redskins-Saints-Cardinals. In addition to the Redskins' victory over the Vikings in this scenario, Washington also beat the Cardinals, so they would be undefeated head-to-head. Carolina and New Orleans both beat Arizona as well. As no head-to-head sweep is possible except in a Vikings-Redskins-Cardinals situation, we go to conference records: MIN 6-5 (would go to 6-6); WAS 5-5 (would also go to 6-6); CAR 6-4 (would go to 8-4); NO 6-4 (would go to 7-5); ARI 3-7 (would go to 5-7, as would, note, the Lions).
• NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Dallas (@Washington, would result in too many primetime appearances for Cowboys) and Green Bay (v. Detroit) are tied for the 1 spot. Both have clinched first-round byes. Tampa Bay (v. Carolina) and Seattle (@Atlanta) are similarly tied for the three spot.
• Analysis: If NBC wants a game that matters for both teams, Bucs-Panthers is the only doable game, and even then only if the Panthers still have a shot at the playoffs. If it's not, look for another Favre lovefest (Packers-Lions). To think we used to think this was a rich weekend. If NBC just wants good teams, regardless of whether it matters for both sides, Titans-Colts is good, but that's it, and the Titans can easily be eliminated from the playoffs next week, meaning we're back to the Favre love. Oh, and the Colts come in just under the gun, so if I got something wrong in this post Titans-Colts is disqualified anyway. And if last year, when there were better games, is any indication? Then I might as well make my final prediction.

Oh, and re-reading the AA post linked to on last week's watch, I'm even more confused, and no longer certain what AA was thinking, because while Titans-Colts is listed as CBS' "protected" game, Fox's game is "GB-CHI", which obviously isn't being played at all - and was last year's NBC game Week 17! But really, Jags-Texans is the only other real dark horse, although Vikings-Broncos might get thrown in for the heck of it. Even then, though, that'll only happen if there isn't a Favre to love because he wouldn't be playing (which I doubt).

New SuperPower Rankings

Some notes:

• I guarantee that the Lions will remind people of why people liked them so much and why they were 6-2 against the Chiefs.
• I actually would have picked the Dolphins against the Patriots had they lost because the irony would have been irresistable. Now, though, I don't think they have a prayer.
• The Redskins have a two-game winning streak, which poses a problem, because I told myself that if the Redskins continued their Chicago success I would say they would have an inspired run to the playoffs. But they're playing the Vikings, a team you just don't dismiss out of hand. Ultimately I'm picking the Redskins in the Upset Special.
• How do you choose between the collapsing Cardinals and the absolute mess known as the Atlanta Falcons?

TIME's Person of the Year is certainly harkening back to its roots...

...of picking Hitler and Stalin.

And, of course, George W. Bush.

Quick note

The web site is updated with the Patriots' quest for 19-0.

That is all.

Could the real force behind King George Bush's warmongering...

...be Israel?

I hope you have actual intelligence to share with the US and not just paranoid delusions...

Return of Da Countdown - long-form style

I profess to having something of an interest in politics, and I'm starting to follow the coming 2008 election with some interest. From here until November 4, I'll be counting down every second here on Da Blog.

More such countdowns are forthcoming.

UPDATE: Blogger appears to bastardize the JavaScript code in the name of "debugging" and "streamlining". I may have to host Da Countdown on the web site or switch to a Flash solution. And there's a reason I chose this approach...

UPDATE: Switched to a different code, which appears to be working. But it doesn't do anything more than a year in the future, and only allows the target to be chosen in hour increments.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 14

Well, now I'm not sure how much I should have relied on Awful Announcing for the protections not provided by Michael Hiestand, because AA pulled a brain freeze earlier this week and claimed there were protected games Week 17. Notwithstanding that that is expressly prohibited, it would also violate the limit on the number of protectable games - that or AA is forgetting his own previous post listing the protected games!

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Selected game: Washington @ Minnesota.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers-Ravens out along with the Ravens' playoff chances.
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and the Titans and Texans are both out. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and the Chiefs and Raiders are both out. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans and Bills a game back, the latter playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Bengals only other team in playoff contention, and only because I'm too lazy to check the tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
• NFC North: Packers clinched.
• NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, and Panthers would come down to tiebreaker with the Panthers still with one to play against the Bucs. Guess what week that is? Saints playing Da Bears.
• NFC West: Seahawks' lead over Cardinals comes down to tiebreaker.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and Vikings would get the nod if the season ended today. Packers-Lions now fading with NFC North locked up and Lions on a losing streak. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Lions, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 6-7, lending a little credence to Packers-Lions, and the Eagles, Bears, and Panthers all have outside shots at 5-8, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-10 and out.

New SuperPower Rankings once again

Very briefly: Picking Detroit over San Diego as the Upset Special, because I still believe the Lions are almost as good as everyone thought they were when they were 6-2. No one will look at the schedule and notice that this losing streak has come almost entirely against good, playoff-bound teams.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 picks

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs' success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won't settle for 8-5 v. 3-10.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday's Watch and their records: Lions (6-7) v. Chiefs (4-9); Giants (9-4) v. Bills (7-6); Ravens (4-9) v. Seahawks (9-4); Redskins (6-7) v. Vikings (7-6); Eagles (5-8) v. Saints (5-7); Browns (8-5) v. Bengals (5-8).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can conceivably improve to 6-7 with a win, but it would still lag behind Skins-Vikings and Giants-Bills.
• Analysis: Not only does Giants-Bills benefit from the Bills winning, it also benefits from not looking as lopsided as I originally thought. Skins-Vikings is the only other halfway decent game.
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills.
• Actual selection: Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings. I take two things from this. One is that NBC and the NFL did see Giants-Bills as being awfully lopsided. Another is that they may see the Vikings as speeding ahead a little, since they've been on fire of late. But I might want to discount both. Selecting the Giants would have had no effect on Week 17, since the Giants are on NFL Network that week, but it would have kept NBC from selecting any other team with five primetime appearances. Only three teams fall into that category, but they include the Colts, who have a game very much in the running on that night.

Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

At least I got any votes at all, but I got a grand total of two total votes on the poll, so I had to make decisions on the other six matchups myself.

#1 Virginia Tech v. #8 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
In a tight contest, Oklahoma survives by the seat of their pants after stalling a late comeback attempt by the Mountaineers. Now it comes down to a battle between #8 and #11 in rushing defense. The marquee matchup to watch is when the Sooners have the ball, as the #3 offense goes against the #2 defense in points put up.

#2 Georgia v. #7 Ohio State (Capital One Bowl)
The Buckeyes and Tigers have a tight, low-scoring classic, as Missouri manages to contain the Buckeye running game enough to keep them in it. The Buckeyes just barely hang on for the 10-7 victory. Being a matchup between two of the most storied college football teams in the country, this game sells itself, but Georgia will now learn in a hurry just how difficult it can be to get past one of the strongest defenses in the country. Georgia does have a fairly stout defense of its own, though, and on offense, both teams' strength lie in their respective running games. That means the matchup will focus on Chris Wells v. Knowshon Moreno.

#3 Kansas v. #11 USC (Fiesta Bowl)
Todd Reesing has a career day against the Knights of UCF and gives Kansas the trip to the second round they need. Meanwhile, USC puts up points in bunches and pulls off a 28-17 victory over the Eagles on the road. Now they play much closer to home against the Jayhawks, in another game that will rely much more on the arm of John David Booty than on the running game. Reesing and the #14 passing attack will have their hands full with USC's #8 passing defense. Clearly, the Jayhawks aren't playing cupcakes anymore!

#5 LSU v. #13 BYU (Orange Bowl)
A last-second field goal gives LSU a 44-42 win over the Warriors, but Florida is not so lucky. I probably should have mentioned this at the Selection Show, but we're assuming that all players' injury situations are the way they would be as of the close of voting, not at full strength. Seeing Tim Tebow's arm in a cast at the Heisman presentation, I realized he would have been lucky to play at all. Without Tebow, the Gators go down in defeat, and BYU doesn't have to leave the state for its next game. LSU is #12 in rushing offense and #12 in points put up, but BYU is #13 in points allowed, #10 in total yards allowed, and #7 in rushing yards allowed. BYU is #13 in passing offense and #15 in total yardage, but LSU is #3 in yards allowed and #16 in passing yardage, not to mention #18 in rushing yards allowed. It's a veritable stat-a-palooza!

All polls expire in TWO weeks at 5 pm PT.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs' success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won't settle for 8-4 v. 3-9.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren't a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is probably out, at 6-6 v. 4-8, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills, at 6-6 v. 8-4, is in trouble as well. Ravens-Seahawks? At 4-8 v. 8-4? Please. Skins-Vikings (5-7 v. 6-6 but likely to finish higher) might be the favorite now, and likely has an edge over Eagles-Saints (5-7 v. 5-7) for a number of reasons. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot at 7-5 v. 4-8.
• Prediction: A lot depends on the lopsidedness factor and how much it comes into play. If it doesn't look for Giants-Bills to get in with a Buffalo win. If the NFL cared avout the competitiveness of the game Skins-Vikings might have a better shot. But while there are weak matchups here there are better ones than what NBC might think it had to settle for. For Giants-Bills to be beaten, a few things needs to happen; a Bills loss woyld be a start. Skins-Vikings needs a Skins win, but that combined with a Vikings win and Bills loss might make it safe. This one could be wide open in many ways. Hard to read; this will be telling about the NFL's, and NBC's, priorities.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close (likely) and the Ravens are in contention for a wild card (unlikely).
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and three ahead of the Chiefs and Raiders. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and either the Browns or Titans would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Bills a game back, playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are both out.
• NFC North: The Pack have opened up a lead large enough to put the Lions and Vikings down to tiebreakers. The Vikings lose that but the Lions still have one to play against the Packers - guess what week that is?
• NFC South: Bucs up three on Saints and Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons out.
• NFC West: Seahawks have opened up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams out.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and either the Lions, Vikings, or Cardinals would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Eagles, Bears, Panthers, and Saints are all a game back at 5-7, which means all but three teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, Vikings-Broncos, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-9 but still mathematically in it.

New rankings and other errata

You know what I just realized? The 2004 Auburn and Utah titles are going to be unified at the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, the BCS Title Game won't involve an undefeated team and neither team holds any lineal title. Arkansas will defend its Princeton Title at the Cotton Bowl ("Just a few days ago, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. While unsuccessful in that match, they did manage to get into another National Championship Game," writes HeavyweightFootballChamps.com), and Illinois will defend the 2007 Boise State title in the Rose Bowl. I'm not sure if I should create a new lineal title or not. Heaven knows that both the Princeton and 2004 Auburn titles managed to stay in the SEC all year without being unified, so if Ohio State and Illinois both win their conferences, there's no guarantee any imaginary "2007 BCS Championship" title would be instantly unified with 2007 Boise State. If LSU wins, and the two SEC titleholders win their bowls, it's a lot less likely that LSU will completely escape winning a lineal title, or at least its lineage escaping being unified with one.

On the other hand, they may be being forced into going 12 rounds, but nothing's stopping the Patriots and its run with the NFL Lineal Title, as shown by the latest logo to be X'ed out. But there are definitely concerns. This is now two straight weeks the Pats have been taken to the wire... by a mediocre team. The Steelers are no mediocre team. The Pats' struggles have shown their defense to be porous against the run, and the Steelers have Willie Parker. And the New Steel Curtain just might be up to the task of stopping Tom Brady.

So the Steelers have no chance.

Maybe I've been watching too much wrestling, but New England is going to basically crush the Steelers - and I had been thinking about picking the Steelers just to stop the winning at some point. The point spread, I've heard, is -10 New England; I am guaranteeing that the Pats are going to cover and win by at least that much, or I don't know what I'll do. Maybe you could suggest something.

Other news and notes:

• WHY do people keep hyping the fall of the Lions as some sort of "return to reality"? ALL FOUR TEAMS THEY'VE LOST TO IN THIS STREAK ARE LEGIT PLAYOFF CONTENDERS, EVEN THE CARDINALS! No wonder the college football polls don't take strength of schedule into account (unless it helps them hose a non-BCS team), because no one else in any sport does either! Granted, you can say the same thing about the remaining four opponents, but I still believe in the 10-win guarantee, I'm sticking with it to the end, and win or lose I'm still picking the Lions over the Chargers and Chiefs.
• It's Chicago's turn to win this week. And I'm picking the Redskins to lose for the rest of the season. Exactly what line has the Redskins as a favorite? The Redskins do have the SuperPower Ranking edge, but only barely, so no Upset Special.
• Picking Houston over Tampa Bay at home as the Upset Special, as the Bucs may be the creation of a weak schedule. A second upset special has the Cardinals beating the Seahawks, as I'm taking that stat from last time and picking the Cards over all >.500 teams (and likely making that the, or at least an, Upset Special) and against them when facing a <.500 team. I might - might - make an exception for the Pats or Dolphins.

Attention

The SuperPower Rankings and the SNF picks are going to be VERY late tonight. I wouldn't expect them before 10 PST at the earliest.

2007 Golden Bowl Tournament Selection Show

Welcome to the first annual Selection Show for the simulated Golden Bowl Tournament - your chance to see what a playoff would be like. If you want a playoff in college football, it'll probably take the form here. Here are the parameters of the tournament:

• 11 teams are selected from the Conference Champions of all teams
• 5 more teams are selected from an at-large pool consisting of all other teams
• First round games on campus sites; subsequent rounds at bowl sites based on traditional affiliations and regional interest

Soon after I announce each octofinal pairing, the polls will open so you can vote to determine who moves on. The conference champions with auto bids are Virginia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, BYU, USC, Hawaii, Central Florida, Central Michigan, and Florida Atlantic. Missouri, Georgia, Florida, Boston College, and Kansas have been selected as at-large teams.

Due to delays (damn you, Washington-Hawaii!) I'm not exactly done with all the seeding and pairing, so this will be a fairly slow process. But all in all, good luck to all our teams, especially our Number 1 seed, Virginia Tech.

Octofinal matchups:

#16 Central Michigan (MAC champion) v. #1 Virginia Tech (ACC champion)
I mentioned in an earlier post that the reason including ALL champions is actually a strength of my system is that it encourages the top teams to keep fighting for the tippy-top seeds. But both the 1 and 2 seeds (#2 will face the Sun Belt champ) are going to face tough opponents. Central Michigan's only loss in-conference came to Eastern Michigan, and the Chippewas managed to knock off what was probably a better Ball State team. The Hokies' two main advantages are home field and a superb defense.

#15 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt champion) v. #2 Georgia (at-large)
Florida Atlantic, only a couple years removed from entering I-A, defeated a solid, 3-loss Troy team, one that managed to knock off Oklahoma State earlier in the year, on the road to win the Sun Belt title. Don't count out their chances to mount a similar upset against a team so many people think is on fire. Look for a big marquee match-up between the Owls' hot passing attack and the Bulldogs' stouch defense in this battle of Southern teams.

#14 Central Florida (Conference USA champion) v. #3 Kansas (at-large)
The question here is simple: Can Kevin Smith, the nation's leading running back whose lack of accolades UCF fans have been decrying, crack Kansas' #6 rushing defense and prove he deserves every accolade denied him? Already the storylines are writing themselves!

#13 BYU (Mountain West champion) v. #4 Florida (at-large)
Yes, Tigers fans, I know you beat Florida, but at home. Fortunately, the bracket lays out for the two of you to decide it on a neutral site as soon as the quarterfinals. And while LSU gets a significant challenge in Round 1, rest assured that Florida will get a battle from BYU, the #7 rushing and #10 overall yardage defense in the country, as well. Since Florida lacks a rushing attack beyond Tim Tebow, expect this to be a pass-happy game. With Florida itself being #10 in rushing defense, BYU will probably do the same, and they are #13 in passing offense. Trust me, this could be fun to watch, and BYU has a legit chance to pull one out in the Swamp.

Quarterfinal sites: 1/16/8/9 to Cotton Bowl; 2/15/7/10 to Capital One Bowl; 3/14/6/11 to Fiesta Bowl; 4/13/5/12 to Orange Bowl.

#12 Hawaii (WAC champion) v. #5 LSU (SEC champion)
Congratulations, Hawaii, on your undefeated season! Your reward: A date, in the very first round, with one of the teams in the real-life national championship game. Before you pout, mid-major fans, know that I could have very easily rated Hawaii ahead of USC, but didn't mainly to maintain the Big 10-Pac-10 champions' matchup occuring in the semifinal, which I would assign to the Rose Bowl. LSU's got a good defense, but it could have its hands full with the up-and-down, high-scoring offense of Colt Brennan and Hawaii. LSU will have to rely on its own powerful offense to crack the Warriors' armor.

#11 USC (Pac-10 champion) v. #6 Boston College (at-large)
Sorry, Trojans, try beating some good teams other than Arizona State and not losing to Stanford. This is another game that will come down to the passing attack: Boston College has the top rushing defense in the country (a possible challenge for USC rushing prodigy Joe McKnight) and USC is #4. That means it comes down to which QB can outplay the other: Matt Ryan or John David Booty. Quick warning to Ryan: SC is good on defense no matter what you do. It'll be interesting to see if USC can still beat teams the way they're used to when their playing in the cold, frigid Northeast.

This means that the #2 seed's half of the bracket will play in the Rose Bowl, and #1's half will play in the Sugar Bowl, for the semifinals.

#10 Missouri (at-large) v. #7 Ohio State (Big 10 champion)
Can Chase Daniel beat Ohio State's top-ranked passing defense and 4th-ranked rushing defense in the Horseshoe? If anyone can, it's the #6 passing offense of the Tigers. Also, this is one of the shorter gaps between two teams in the octofinals in terms of geographic distance, so don't be surprised to find some Missouri gold littering the stands. You want to tell me you wouldn't love to see this in a playoff format?

#9 West Virginia (Big East champion) v. #8 Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
Okay, so this is the same as the real-life Fiesta Bowl. The difference is that the Mountaineers will have to go to Oklahoma to play the game. Oklahoma will still have an edge in the real-life game because that'll be even further from Morgantown. The #11 Sooner rushing defense will try to contain the #4 rushing offense keyed by Pat White and Steve Slaton. Meanwhile, the #4 defense by overall yardage will try to contain the #3 offense by points put up. Will the Big East prove it deserves to be considered a top-caliber conference when its champion knocks off the champion of the Big 12? (Oh, how important it is to keep winning. West Virginia likely would have not only hosted a game, but landed a seed as high as fourth, if they had just taken care of Pittsburgh.)

All polls close next Sunday at 5 PM PST. Track the bracket here.

Who SHOULD Be Going to Which Bowls?

Based on my understanding of the bowl tie-ins and the College Football Rankings, while respecting the bowl eligibility rules. Teams on the left of an "OR" assume the BCS selects partly based on its standings; those on the right of one, if it selects purely based off my rankings.

• Poinsettia: Utah v. Navy
• New Orleans: Florida Atlantic v. Houston
• Papajohns.com: Rutgers? OR Louisville? v. Southern Miss
• New Mexico: Air Force v. Nevada OR Fresno State
• Las Vegas: California OR UCLA v. BYU
• Hawaii: Fresno State OR Hawaii v. East Carolina
• Motor City: Ball State v. Purdue
• Holiday: Oregon v. Texas
• Texas: Troy v. Memphis
• Champs Sports: Virginia OR Wake Forest v. Wisconsin
• Emerald: Florida State OR Maryland v. Oregon State OR California
• Meineke Car Care: Georgia Tech (or Wake Forest) OR Florida State v. Cincinnati OR Connecticut
• Liberty: Central Florida v. Kentucky
• Alamo: Michigan State v. Texas Tech
• Independence: Colorado v. Alabama
• Armed Forces: UCLA OR Indiana v. TCU
• Humanitarian: Boise State v. Maryland OR New Mexico
• Sun: Arizona State OR Oregon State v. Texas A&M
• Music City: Mississippi State v. Wake Forest OR Georgia Tech
• Chick-fil-A: Arkansas v. Clemson OR Boston College
• Insight: Michigan v. Oklahoma State
• Outback: Illinois v. Tennessee
• Cotton: Missouri v. Auburn
• Gator: Boston College OR Virginia v. South Florida OR Cincinnati
• Capital One: Penn State v. Florida OR Georgia
• GMAC: Tulsa v. Central Michigan
• International: Connecticut? OR Rutgers? v. Bowling Green
• Rose: Ohio State v. USC
• Sugar: Kansas OR Florida v. Arizona State OR Clemson
• Fiesta: Oklahoma v. Georgia OR South Florida
• Orange: Virginia Tech v. Hawaii OR Kansas
• BCS Title Game: LSU v. West Virginia (Ohio State? They're 4th)

Some minor changes

Couple of notes.

First, I've launched Da Countdown. Now you can actually watch the countdown to the selection show for my college football playoff. (Note that it counts down to Sunday at 4 PM regardless of time zone. Ideally it would count down to 4 PM PST specifically, but I don't know of any such countdowns out there on the Internet that are any good.)

I've also done some reorganizing of the sidebar, moving "About Me" to the top. I may have a new Da Blog Poll in the future on whether Da Countdown and Da Blog Poll should be above the Archive or below it.

The Case for a Playoff

Over the past week, I've been working on hammering out the at-large bids to my simulated college football playoff. As I've detailed here before, if you want a playoff, the most logical way for it to work is a full 16-team field with all 11 conference champions and 5 at-large bids. Currently, I haven't made any seedings and none of the at-larges are set in stone, so that I can react to this weekend's slate of games.

I've been treating that as a bare minimum, and when I originally conceived of it I saw it as a logical limitation on a playoff. If you wanted the NCAA to institute a playoff, that's the bare minimum they were likely to accept - no 8-team garbage. Most 8-team layouts I've seen have all six BCS conference champions, which is just as disenfranchising as before - to potential second-best teams from BCS conferences as well as non-BCS conference champions. Partly because of these concerns, and because I saw even five at larges as too limiting, I've been toying with the idea of a 24-team playoff with 8 byes to the second round.

But looking over this idea, I find that, far from being a creation of expediency and compromise, this might actually be the ideal tournament format and the one most likely to stand up to the scrutiny of the BCS backers. Here are the most common arguments leveled against the idea of a playoff and my responses:

The regular season, which is part of what makes college football special, will become meaningless. Big upsets will mean less if the losers are going to get into a playoff anyway. Not under my system. With such Darwinian competition for five at-large spots, the only truly sure way to get into the playoffs is to win your conference. It's not like basketball where the Big Six conference tournaments are a big joke because everyone who gets semi-far is getting into the NCAAs anyway. If you slip, and it costs you the conference title, you have to be absolutely perfect the rest of the way to battle it out for position for an at-large. USC probably is not getting into my tournament if they lose to UCLA, Michigan almost certainly is not getting an at-large and the loss to Appalachian State is no small part of it, and there is a scenario in which LSU doesn't get into my tournament either. Those upsets are still meaningful, as is Illinois' upset over Ohio State, and as do many more games on the schedule besides - under my system, every conference championship takes on profound importance every year (the ACC and SEC Title Games are important parts of my waiting game to fill at-larges, but in reality they're sideshows to the national title race). Every team wants to run the table and go undefeated (I'll explain why, and why OSU's upset still matters, in a moment), but you never know when someone will come up and ruin your shot at a conference title (see this season). So you have to be sure that, just in case something wrong happens, you can sufficiently impress the Powers that Be that are choosing the at-larges that your team is worthy. What does this mean? It means that TEAMS WOULD ACTUALLY HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO SCHEDULE TOUGH OPPONENTS! Do you think Michigan would have passed up that game against Hawaii under my system? Hell no; they couldn't pass up the strength of schedule boost it would provide should they lose to Ohio State (again) and lose the Big 10 Title. Losing to Hawaii would cost Michigan an undefeated season, but it wouldn't affect their chances of winning the Big 10. Beating Hawaii, on the other hand, would make a big statement that would shore up their case for getting in, their seeding once in, and their case for a 1 seed should they go undefeated.

Late in the season, if a team has no or 1 loss, and has already locked up their conference or at least a spot in the playoff, they will rest starters and begin to coast, like in the NFL. Not if they want to beat their rival they won't. More importantly, such a strategy can be suicidal. My plan has an element that looks like a weakness at first. Why, the 8-team proponents say, should I award spots in the tournament to every mid-major conference champion? No way are they better than potential at-large teams that would make for a true top 16. But this is actually a strength. Sure, the MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt champions might not be real threats to win the national championship. But you can't tell me it's not incredibly valuable to pick up a top 3 seed and, basically, a free pass to the second round. The four seed, on the other hand, might be at risk of an upset against one of the better mid-major champions, or if it's a really strong year for mid-majors, an at-large. The five and six seeds get stuck with either the lower-rated at-larges or the "BCS Buster" du jour. Ohio State likely would have gotten a top two seed had they run the table. Now, however, Ohio State might fall behind some at-large teams and pick up a four or worse. Last year, I've heard it said that Michigan-Ohio State would have been nowhere near as special without a playoff. See this year's Patriots-Cowboys, Patriots-Colts, and Cowboys-Packers matchups and get back to me on that. Ignoring how huge the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry is, the fact is that Michigan-Ohio State likely would have been for a No. 1 seed on the line, and thus a worse first-round opponent, and the loser could have easily slipped below No. 2 - Michigan could have easily slipped to #4 behind Florida and Louisville. If you manage to get a 1 seed, the Sun Belt (or quite frankly, the MAC or C-USA; Troy is a pretty good team this year) is probably going to feed you a team so crappy, you might as well rest your starters and coast then, as a reward for your stellar regular-season performance.

Protect the sanctity of the bowls! Oh please. I once agreed with this point, until I realized that 90% of the bowls are crap. No one gives a shit about most of these meaningless bowls that semi-randomly pair teams together and lets them loose to play a game, and generally we learn absolutely nothing from it and there's no reason to watch. Who cares about the Meineke Car Care Bowl or the New Orleans Bowl? The BCS has ruined the sanctity of the bowls already (just ask the Cotton Bowl), with the result that the Rose Bowl is the only bowl that still has a "tradition" worth saving. That's easy enough to keep. Seed the field so that the Pac-10 and Big 10 champion would always meet in a semifinal. Make that semifinal the Rose Bowl. Bingo, problem solved, at least for the most part.

But the beautiful thing about the bowls is that we have 32 winners, not 1. There's a reason college basketball has the NIT. I'm only selecting 16 teams for my tournament. All the other teams can still go to the bowls, including early-round tournament losers. There's even the possibility of a third-place game. What's that? You say those bowls would be meaningless? Hell, they're meaningless now. The BCS bowls are the only non-national championship bowls worth watching (with some exceptions like that year when Louisville and Boise State played in the Liberty Bowl when BSU was undefeated and Louisville came within a play of doing the same). Teams that don't make the tournament can still get an ego boost from the bowls, and the tournament-loser "consolation bowls" can be used to partially settle certain arguments not covered in the tournament itself.

You have to protect the integrity of academics! Oh please. These people are probably the same people that added a 12th game purely for the money. College football sold out on academics long ago, and the Division I-AA, II, and III football tournaments don't seem to have grossly negative effects on academics. If you're concerned about players not being able to participate in finals week, you can insert a one-week gap into the tournament. That would result in the semifinals being played around New Year's Day and the national championship being played about when it is now.

The fans can't possibly attend all these games! They seem to have no problem moving from site to site in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. You can alleviate the problem if need be by playing at least the first round at campus sites.

You're not getting rid of controversy. There'll just be controversy as to who gets in from the at-large pool. At least we won't have any more undefeated teams with NO chance of playing for a national championship. By the point we get to the edge of the at-large pool we're talking about two, three, or even four-loss teams that probably don't have a real shot at winning the whole thing anyway. Does anyone really think that the teams on the bubble of the NCAA basketball tournament ever have any real shot at winning the national championship, George Mason notwithstanding?

Will someone please think of the children! This is often an argument that college football players are very young and often don't have their feelings considered - never mind that the players themselves overwhelmingly support a playoff. According to this, we shouldn't be overworking the poor little kids and leaving them at risk to injury in so many added games. It certainly doesn't seem to hurt those kids in I-AA, II, and III to have a football playoff, does it?

A playoff won't give us the best team at the end of the season, only the hottest or the one best able to avoid - or pull off - upsets. By the same token, this is also a problem with our current "regular season playoff". Everyone knows USC was better than Cal in 2003, and thus better than all the teams they played, but losing to Cal cost USC a trip to the national championship game. It's a dirty little secret: the team that goes undefeated isn't necessarily the best, just the luckiest at avoiding potential upsets. Similarly, it's a problem no matter what type of system exists, including the current BCS. Ohio State in all likelihood was better than Florida last year but the Gators got hot at the right time, so they became national champions.

We already have a playoff - the regular season! Oh please. For the love of God. Tell that to Auburn in 2004, Boise State last year, or - especially - Hawaii this year. And try to keep spewing that argument if we get a team with two losses in this "playoff" still playing in the national championship game. Most of the arguments attatched to this meaningless blanket statement have been covered above.

The controversy the current system creates is one reason why college football is second in popularity right now only to the NFL. And a playoff would give it a shot to rectify that problem. Before you call that far-fetched, look at college basketball - it's more popular than the NBA, even comparing their respective regular seasons, and the college regular season is supposedly meaningless. Texas-USC in 2006 produced gerbonkers ratings. That was a controversy-free year, so I doubt it would have gotten lower ratings if it had come at the end of a playoff. If anything, the ratings would have been even higher because the playoff would provide a way to guide and nurture the ascending hype. And a championship game in years that the BCS created controversy would likely be more popular as well. The more people accept a game as a championship, the more popular it is - what a concept!

College football loses money. Ultimately, this is what's killing the idea of a playoff. The schools would lose money compared to the bowls, the conferences would lose money, the bowls would lose money, the networks would lose money. The current system produces 5 bowls worth watching. My system would produce 15 games worth watching and increase the importance of every one, which helps everyone except the bowls - unless the bowls were made part of the tournament. That's before we consider how lucrative a TV deal would be associated with this playoff. Just look at the success of the Basketball Tournament. But the real killer? The BCS conferences would have to share more of the pie. Even if they would still, individually, get more nominally, they don't want to have to share with the little guys.

Well, the little guys have already pressured them to open up the BCS - it's now almost certain for an undefeated non-BCS conference team to get into the BCS bowls. They can do it again. I guarantee that we will have a plus-one system within the next 16 years, and I would be willing to bet that we will get a full-fledged playoff of at least 8 teams within my lifetime. There are many more advantages besides the ones presented here, and this is perhaps the best idea I'm likely to see, with one of the few others coming close being basically an adaptation of this idea with only one at-large and a 12-team field.

A version that's essentially what I've laid out previously is making the rounds from here, with the difference that the bowl games would be cut out until the national championship, with all rounds through the semifinals on campus sites, on the grounds that bowls put money in the hands of people outside the system, and are played in more sterile environments (as of next year, three of the four BCS bowls will be played on NFL fields, two of which I don't believe host a BCS conference team, and the fourth won't be in an NFL market, with the most storied non-BCS bowl soon to move to an NFL field as well) than the home fields of college football's most storied programs. The truth is probably some sort of compromise, if only as a practicality to appease bowl directors and traditionalists, with the main battleground in my system likely to be the quarterfinals. The main advantage of bowl sites is to make things more fair by mostly cutting out the home-field advantage. On the other hand, there's a reason why I'm keeping campus sites for the first round: among other things, it provides yet another incentive for competing for seeding, by way of fighting for a lucrative top-eight seed, which not only provides competitive advantage but also sends money flowing into the coffers of the school for hosting the game.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
• Prospects: At 5-6 v. 7-4, this looks vulnerable. Being in the same division as the Cowboys hurts as well, but these are both teams that have legit shots at the playoffs and the thrilling finish of their last meeting will help write the storyline.
• Protected games according to Awful Announcing: Jags-Steelers (CBS), Lions-Chargers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Seahawks-Panthers still has a chance but it pits 7-4 vs. 4-7. It needs help. Titans-Chiefs is probably out, looking even worse. Browns-Bills has the exact same pair of records as Redskins-Giants.
• Prediction: I see no way the Redskins and Giants don't make it four straight tentative games kept.
• Final prediction: Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs' success, which just makes it look lopsided.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren't a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is in trouble, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills is having problems. Ravens-Seahawks? Please. Skins-Vikings might be the favorite now, but that means you can't count out Eagles-Saints either. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot - the Bengals have a better record than the Niners and the Browns' is the same as the Bucs'.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
  • AFC East: Patriots clinched.
  • AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close - but it depends a lot more on what the ex-Browns do. Right now, this game isn't looking great.
  • AFC South: The Colts are now just a game ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
  • AFC West: Chargers a game ahead of the Broncos and two ahead of the Chiefs. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely. But the Raiders are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans a game back. The Bills, Texans, and Broncos are two back, adding some luster to Bills-Eagles, but the Eagles need to hold up their end of the bargain. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are down to a tiebreaker. Both lost the first game but still have one to play against them Cowboys.
  • NFC North: Same as the East, except the Pack have another game's lead over the Lions. Vikings out on tiebreak. Bears are down to tiebreak but won the first game and still have one to play.
  • NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, three on Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons still mathematically in it.
  • NFC West: Seahawks opens up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners still mathematically in it. Rams out on tiebreak.
  • NFC Wild Card: Giants and Lions would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Redskins, Eagles, Vikings, Bears, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 5-6, which means all but four teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Vikings-Broncos. Panthers still waiting in the wings as well.

New SuperPower Rankings

News and notes:

• Don't overestimate the impact of the Lions' three-game losing streak. Two of those games came against teams considered the class of the NFC, and the third was on the road against a Cardinals team that's one of those "win against good teams, lose against bad ones" types this year. Arizona is 3-1 against teams above .500 but 2-5 against teams below .500. That's why they're favored at home against a good Browns team.
• That said, although I'm picking the Lions over the Vikings, I do so with some trepidation. The Vikings are going to be impossible to pick against without a lot of thought the rest of the way. But I still believe in the 10-Win Guarantee.
• Psst... the Chargers' only bad losses are against the Chiefs and Vikings, and the Chiefs were good early and the Vikings are good now. But in my Upset Special, if the Chiefs beat the Chargers on the road, they can do so at home.
• Two of my patterns went by the wayside, but I'm still picking the Rams for the duration because that was a game they should have won. The Bears are coming off a win and their next game is against... the Giants. Right. I'm now picking the Saints to finish a two-game winning streak and then lose, win, and I don't know what after that.
• Want another Upset Special? How about the Raiders, who came within a timeout of beating the Broncos at Mile High, at home? Or Houston beating Tennessee? You don't think the Texans will remind people of how they looked early with Andre Johnson against the ailing, Haynesworth-less Titans defense?

Update

The SuperPower Rankings and the SNF Flex Scheduling Watch are forthcoming, but I'm only starting work on the SuperPower Rankings now, so they will be a while.

Week 13 College Football Rankings

The new rankings are here. And while I'm working on a simulated playoff, on Saturday Night I'll bring my picks on who SHOULD go to the bowls, based on the final regular-season rankings.

Programming note

Please tune in to Da Blog this Monday at 4 PM PST for the Golden Bowl Playoff Selection Show, where I will announce the bracket for our simulated playoff and open first-round voting.

All college lineal titles have been updated, as has the Chase for 19-0. However, due to "minor server issues" on Freehostia's end, the Week 13 College Football Rankings are delayed. Even though I told it to upload at the same time as the lineal titles... huh. Let's hope this doesn't become a trend...

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 picks

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore
• Prospects: Baltimore at 4-7 has to override the Colts at 9-2, right?
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Steelers-Patriots (CBS) and Giants-Eagles (Fox)
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday's Watch and their records: Chargers (6-5) v. Titans (6-5); Jags (8-3) v. Panthers (4-7); Chiefs (4-7) v. Broncos (5-6); Bucs (7-4) v. Texans (5-6); Cardinals (5-6) v. Seahawks (7-4).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: The Chargers opened things up for another game to take over. The Texans and Cardinals both lost, potentially eliminating their games (even - or especially - with their opponents losing), and the Colts got back on the winning track. There's only one game I see with a shot at taking this one away. I think the right choice is to go with Chargers-Titans. But I'm not sure it's an overwhelming enough game to sway the selection. I won't be surprised if they change it but if they chose Steelers-Bengals for next week...
• Final prediction: Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

(Although I don't have any firm information, the lack of information for a game with no MNF impact strongly suggests this prediction is correct.)

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh. Minor surprise that this game would be picked over Titans-Texans. The NFL and NBC don't care about the lopsided nature of Bengals-Steelers, only about the Steelers. Wonder if the Titans' loss turned them off.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore
• Prospects: Might be vulnerable with Baltimore struggling at 4-6 and the Colts suddenly struggling as well at 8-2.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Steelers-Patriots (CBS) and Giants-Eagles (Fox)
• Other possible games: Ignore Cowboys-Lions because of the primetime appearances. Chargers (5-5)-Titans (6-4) is the leading candidate, while Jags (7-3)-Panthers (4-6) is slipping along with the QB situation in Carolina. Chiefs (4-6)-Broncos (5-5) may be opening things up for other dark horses: Bucs (6-4)-Texans (5-5) and Cardinals (5-5)-Seahawks (6-4).
• Prediction: Colts-Ravens might be safe with a Ravens win, given what I found out this week about just how tied to the tentative picks the NFL is. Should the Ravens lose it would be to the Chargers, so Chiefs-Broncos is probably out and the Texans and Cardinals need to win to save their respective games. Jags-Panthers is counting on the Colts losing again and the Jags and Panthers both winning. The Texans and Cardinals may be critical to their respective games' chances, but the 6-4 teams may be even more critical, or Colts-Ravens could keep their spot anyway.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
• Prospects: Might have the best chance to keep its spot. Being in the same division as the Cowboys hurts, but these are two teams on fire (especially the G-Men) and the thrilling finish of their last meeting will help write the storyline.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Jags-Steelers (CBS). Protected Fox game according to Awful Announcing: Lions-Chargers.
• Other possible games: Seahawks-Panthers still has a chance but needs both teams to become more consistent. Titans-Chiefs had a setback this week. Browns-Bills might be emerging as the favorite, recent Bills loss to the Pats notwithstanding, but it's hard to see any of these teams beating a game with potential playoff implications.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs' success, which just makes it look lopsided.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren't a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs might be becoming the favorite if the Chiefs keep winning and the Lions get back on track, while Giants-Bills is a legit dark horse. And don't count out Ravens-Seahawks yet, either, or even Skins-Vikings.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. The Jets probably aren't climbing into playoff contention, recent win aside.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
  • AFC East: The Bills would need the Pats to lose all their remaining games and the Bills to win all their remaining games because the Pats have locked up the tiebreaker. Yes, the Pats can lock up the division in Week 12.
  • AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close - but it depends a lot more on what the ex-Browns do. Right now, this game isn't looking great.
  • AFC South: The Colts are now just a game ahead of the Jaguars and two ahead of the Titans. If that keeps up, Titans-Colts could be the favorite. The Texans are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC West: Chargers and Broncos are tied for the lead with KC a game back. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely. But the Raiders are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Jags would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Browns and Titans tied for the second spot. The Bills, Texans, and the loser of Chargers-Broncos are a game back, adding some luster to Bills-Eagles, but the Eagles need to hold up their end of the bargain. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. The Ravens and Chiefs wait in the wings, so Steelers-Ravens could be a dark horse in the AFC.
  • NFC East: Cowboys two games up on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington still mathematically in it.
  • NFC North: Packers-Lions the NFC and possibly overall favorite, but the Lions, back three, need to win this one on Thanksgiving. Vikings and Bears a game away from needing tiebreakers, which in the Vikings' case means elimination.
  • NFC South: Bucs goes up to a two-game lead over the Panthers and Saints. The Saints play the Bears, but Bucs-Panthers remains a dark horse. Falcons still mathematically in it.
  • NFC West: Seahawks with one-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams still mathematically in it.
  • NFC Wild Card: Giants and Lions would get the nod if the season ended today; even if the Lions lose, wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there. Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals a game back, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, but not enough to pass better games. Vikings, Bears, Panthers, and Saints all waiting in the wings at 4-5, making Saints-Bears an extremely dark horse and lending some credence to Vikings-Broncos, though it needs a lot more.

Patriots Run to 19-0

Regardless of what you may think of the Patriots' quest for 19-0, you can't deny their juggernaut status, rolling over all the other teams in the league like they just don't care.

Check out morganwick.freehostia.com/sports/football and see their quest for 19-0. It helps if you look at it like the Patriot's head is barreling through like a ram.

(Note: Team logos ripped off ESPN web site without permission.)

Week 11 SuperPower Rankings (and a bonus!)

The full SuperPower Rankings are in the same place they always are.

I'm also picking certain trends to continue the rest of the season, and partly as a result I have a rare triple Upset Special. The streaks I'm picking, until they're broken, are for the Rams to win out, the Saints to complete a four-game losing streak and win out, and the Bears to continue alternating wins and losses. One of my upset specials, thus, is the Rams defeating the Seahawks - within the realm of possibility given the Seahawks' inconsistency.

The second Upset Special - the Texans over the Browns - isn't too surprising when you consider the Texans finally have Andre Johnson back. The third, though, is the biggie: the Lions over the Packers. It may seem farfetched, especially given the Lions' loss to the Giants, but I've looked at the schedule and for the Lions to get to ten wins they have to win at least one of three games against the Cowboys or Packers. I consider the Packers to be the more overrated of the two, and there's no better time to beat them than when the Lions are at home. Wouldn't it be fitting for the Lions to win on Thanksgiving when it actually will have some effect on their season?

Or am I just crazy?

College Football Rankings after Week 12

Because of my busy schedule and my emphasis on the SuperPower Rankings, I haven't really said much about the College Football Rankings. The last two weeks have been dominated by the laptop situation, and the two weeks before by my antsiness about the Arizona State-Oregon game getting on TV. Before that, I often had overly short remarks; "The college football rankings from Week 6 are finally up here" was the entire text of my Week 6 update. I did have that long rant about a playoff system, and the simulated playoff is fast approaching, but that's been the exception, not the rule.

Here, though, are some remarks:

• People keep talking about how there's so much parity in college football we desperately need a playoff. But this year could turn out to be a situation in which a plus-one system, or pseudo-four-team playoff, would work just fine. In my view, any plus-one system has to protect the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 Rose Bowl matchup, but can ruin any other bowls for maximum clarity. Because I want to protect the sanctity of the Rose Bowl, it wouldn't have helped a lot in 2000-01, where the most obvious solution was to have Florida State and Miami play again, in the not-impartial-at-all Orange Bowl, and Washington would not be able to play Oklahoma in the other plus-one play-in. A similar problem would have occured the following year, with Oregon relegated to the Rose Bowl. However, it would have solved the 2003-04 (same Rose Bowl and - possibly moved to another bowl - Sugar Bowl we got, as was proposed at the time), 2004-05 (USC v. Penn State in Rose Bowl, Oklahoma v. Auburn in another bowl), and 2006-07 (Ohio State-USC in Rose Bowl, Florida-Michigan in another bowl) controversies. As you can see, however, what it would not do is mollify the concerns of non-BCS conferences.
• In what I think is a first since starting keeping track of the Top 25 in my system in 2005, I have no "watchlist" of teams with positive B Ratings but outside my Top 25. I have Tulsa way down there at #35, depressed by a bad conference.
• LSU I think we can agree on at #1.
• #2 Ohio State: Pollsters always overreact to losses, especially at the top. The most flukey loss imaginable will still send a team plummeting down the polls. Illinois is still a good team and you can't dismiss a season of excellence with one loss.
• #3 Kansas: Need to prove their worth. Ohio State will take a couple weeks of idle hands so Kansas can easily move up to #2, but it might take two wins.
• #4 West Virginia: Let's see, the Big East has four teams - or half of the entire conference - taken up with world-class teams (West Virginia, Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida), plus two dangerous teams (Louisville and Rutgers) that aren't bad either - that's three fourths of the entire conference - and a team (Pittsburgh) that isn't as bad as their record because of the strength of all the others, and you still want to denigrate the Big East? To dare to say the f'in Big 12 is better in a year where that conference is "three teams and everyone else? To brush off South Florida's losing streak without considering the quality of team they did it against? To say that West Virginia, a team that has so far escaped that schedule with only one loss, should be left out of the national title conversation - at least if Kansas loses - "because it's the Big East"? And West Virginia is probably going to face a random sacrificial lamb from the ACC in the Orange Bowl. Shameful.
• #5 Florida: Overreacting to losses, redux. Some people think the polls are basically a way to reflect winning percentage in college sports where that's meaningless. It's hard to disagree. (Yes, I know they lost to Georgia, another two-loss team. Florida also lost to LSU. Meanwhile, Georgia lost to South Carolina and Tennessee, while eking out a ten-point victory over Troy - a team from the effing Sun Belt Conference. Good team, though.)
• #6 Missouri: Yeah, they beat Texas Tech, something Oklahoma couldn't do. And their one loss is to Oklahoma. But they also never played Oklahoma State, their best nonconference game was a six-point nailbiter over Illinois, and they and Kansas have been it all year in the Big 12 North.
• #7 Oklahoma: Simultaneously overreacting to a loss and not looking at the schedule redux. Your best nonconference opponent is either Miami (FL) or Tulsa... you win a nailbiter over Texas and another one over freaking Iowa State... very concerning.
• #8 Oregon: Overreacting to a loss, once again. Actually Oregon is only one spot lower than here in the polls, but below Arizona State.
• #9 South Florida: Reappears in the BCS this week. Beat WV, which #10 Cincinnatti didn't do.
• Where is the love for Penn State? Loss puts Michigan negative.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 picks

Week 13 (December 2, analysis of actual pick to come on Wednesday):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: Very much in trouble. The Steelers (7-3) look great but the Bungles (3-7) are anything but. Also a factor: the Steelers' high number of primetime games. NBC will want to flex this out for a better Steelers game later.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Jaguars-Colts (CBS) and Giants-Bears (Fox)
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday's Watch and their records: Chargers (5-5) v. Chiefs (4-6), Lions (6-4) v. Vikings (4-6), Titans (6-3) v. Texans (5-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Titans play tonight but may have already locked up its supremacy. Its only vulnerability is its lopsided nature compared to Chargers-Chiefs, but not by much. A Titans loss, however, could bring the no-change option back, but that game is so lopsided compared to a potential divisional showdown and the appeal of Vince Young.
• Analysis: On Wednesday, I wrote: "At the moment, Titans-Texans is likeliest (but very dependent on the Texans), followed by Chargers-Chiefs (but very dependent on the Chiefs), followed by Lions-Vikings (but very dependent on the Vikings). If the Texans, Chiefs, and Vikings all lose? Then a Cincinnati win over the Cardinals brings the no-change option back into the fold, and I believe NBC and the NFL will lean towards no-change when possible." Well, the Bengals lost, and Lions-Vikings held up its end of the bargain while Chargers-Chiefs didn't. Unfortunately, the Lions lost, and more importantly, Titans-Texans got what it needed as well. Strangely, I still wouldn't be surprised to see no change.
• Final prediction: Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans.

Week 10 SuperPower Rankings Up

Last week the Patriots achieved a momentous feat: single digits in points. Falling to 9 points means becoming the unanimous No. 1 pick in the Super Power Rankings. This week, the Dolphins pull the opposite feat: 288 points for being the unanimous last place pick.

My Upset Special this week is the Bears over the Seahawks, though I'm starting to reconsider that. Oakland over the Vikings is a technical upset both in the lines and the SuperPower Rankings, so I could have chosen that as my Upset Special and let the home-team edge between two wildly inconsistent teams go to the Seahawks. In fact, screw it. I just moved my pick back over to Seattle. The Upset Special is Oakland handling the Peterson-less Vikes.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can't protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: Very much in trouble. The Steelers (7-2) look great but the Bungles (3-6) are anything but. Also a factor: the Steelers' high number of primetime games. NBC will want to flex this out for a better Steelers game later.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Jaguars-Colts (CBS) and Giants-Bears (Fox)
• Other possible games: Chargers-Chiefs doesn't look as good as you might think at 5-4 versus 4-5. 6-3 vs. 3-6, as Lions-Vikings is, is just more lopsided. Titans-Texans, at 6-3 vs. 4-5, might be the best unprotected pick.
• Prediction: I don't see Bengals-Steelers keeping its spot, but so much depends on what happens Sunday. The only chance for Chargers-Chiefs is for the Chiefs to beat the Colts, which isn't as crackheaded as it sounds, considering the Chargers did the same thing this week. San Diego beating the Jaguars wouldn't hurt either. The Texans should beat New Orleans to secure Titans-Texans; for Lions-Vikings to get in, the Vikings need to beat Oakland and ideally there should be some hope Adrian Peterson will be back by this point. But the Vikings also need the Texans to lose and for either the Titans to lose on Monday Night or the Lions to win against the Giants. At the moment, Titans-Texans is likeliest (but very dependent on the Texans), followed by Chargers-Chiefs (but very dependent on the Chiefs), followed by Lions-Vikings (but very dependent on the Vikings). If the Texans, Chiefs, and Vikings all lose? Then a Cincinnati win over the Cardinals brings the no-change option back into the fold, and I believe NBC and the NFL will lean towards no-change when possible.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore
• Prospects: Might be vulnerable with Baltimore below .500 and the Colts suddenly on a losing skid.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Steelers-Patriots (CBS) and Giants-Eagles (Fox)
• Other possible games: Ignore Cowboys-Lions because of the primetime appearances. Chargers-Titans is the leading candidate, while Jags-Panthers is slipping along with the QB situation in Carolina. Chiefs-Broncos may be a dark horse but a problematic one.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
• Prospects: Might have the best chance to keep its spot, unless things break the Ravens' way. Being in the same division as the Cowboys hurts, but these are two teams on fire (especially the G-Men) and the thrilling finish of their last meeting will help write the storyline.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: Jags-Steelers (CBS). Hiestand mentions no Fox game but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
• Other possible games: Seahawks-Panthers still has a chance but there are a lot of ifs involved. Titans-Chiefs keeps rolling along. Lions-Chargers might be the favorite - unless it was protected, but given the Chargers' early-season struggles that's less likely than you might think. Look out for Browns-Bills, a textbook case of why flex was adopted. Lions-Chargers and Redskins-Giants are the only other two games involving only teams with winning records.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs' success, which just makes it look lopsided.
• Protected games according to Hiestand: None mentioned, but Skins-Vikings, Giants-Bills, and Dolphins-Pats (the latter two restricted by high number of primetime appearances) are all unprotected.
• Other possible games: Texans-Colts (needs the Texans to improve), Packers-Bears (also in trouble but an appealing matchup regardless of respective records), Ravens-Seahawks (struggling). There aren't a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs might be becoming the favorite if the Chiefs can get back on track, while Giants-Bills is a legit dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. The Chiefs are starting to fall back down to earth.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch: Cowboys-Redskins out due to number of primetime appearances.
  • AFC East: The Bills are starting to give the Pats something to worry about. If the Pats lose all their remaining games, they're 9-7. The Bills are 5-4. The Jets and Dolphins are already eliminated. The Pats are on NFL Network, and while the Bills play the Eagles, it's still an unlikely scenario.
  • AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it. The Steelers are running away with it and the Browns are the closest competitor, two games back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close - but it depends a lot more on what the ex-Browns do. Right now, this game isn't looking great.
  • AFC South: The Colts are now just a game ahead of the Jaguars and Titans. If that keeps up, Titans-Colts could be the favorite. The Texans are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC West: Substitute the Chargers for the Colts and the Broncos and Chiefs for the Jags and Titans. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely. But the Raiders are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Titans would get the nod if the season ended today, robbing some luster from Titans-Colts. The Bills and Browns are a game back, adding some luster to Bills-Eagles, but the Eagles need to hold up their end of the bargain. The Ravens, Broncos and Chiefs wait in the wings, so Steelers-Ravens could be a dark horse in the AFC.
  • NFC East: Cowboys two games up on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas, playing a Redskins team three games out, has too many primetime appearances. Philly still mathematically in it.
  • NFC North: Packers-Lions undoubtedly the NFC favorite. Another two-game gap. Bears and Vikings still mathematically in it.
  • NFC South: Bucs holding on to a one-game lead over the Panthers and Saints. The Saints play the Bears, but Bucs-Panthers remains a dark horse. Falcons still mathematically in it.
  • NFC West: Seahawks with one-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams still mathematically in it.
  • NFC Wild Card: Giants and Lions would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back. Eagles, Bears, Panthers, Saints, and Cardinals all waiting in the wings at 4-5, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles and Saints-Bears, but not enough to pass better games.