No more calling out the mainstream media for Favremania, mmmkay?

The Jets released Brett Favre from their "reserve/retired" list yesterday, an auspicious move considering so far as I can tell players on the R/R list don't count against roster or salary caps, but ordinarily a fairly routine move, at least for any player not named Brett Favre.

So naturally you'd expect plenty of "does this mean he's thinking of coming back?" speculation from ESPN and the like, and you'd expect the blogosphere to do plenty of "there they go again, obsessing over Brett Favre" and thumbing their nose because they're so above that...

...hold on, it appears the number 1 topic on SportsCenter's "Blog Buzz" segment this morning was Favre's release. Seems not even the blogosphere is immune to Favremania when a plane traveling between Minneapolis and Hattiesburg and back again sends them going "OMG OMG OMG IT ABSOLUTELY MUST HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH BRETT FAVRE BECAUSE HE IS THE ONLY PERSON IN ALL OF HATTIESBURG THAT EVER HAS TO TRAVEL OMG!!!!!11!!1!!!eleven!"

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr... another retype. I thought I made myself immune to this bullshit.

If the Super Bowl were covered the same way the NFL Draft is:

• It would last two days.
• It would be covered by TWO networks.
• It would be preceded by a five-hour pregame show. Same (or less) than now, right? Well, there would be pregame shows on both networks.
• One of the two networks would have analysis throughout the entire game on a sister channel.
• There would be cameras inside each team's locker room which each broadcast could switch to whenever they needed to, AND cameras inside the houses of players who could be called in at any moment to fly to the game and pitch in for either team.
• There would be in-game interviews with coaches and team executives, and an interview with one player after every play either early or late in the game.
• Each network's broadcast team would include an expert who has analyzed every single play each team could possibly use during the game and has drawn up a "mock game" scripting every move of the entire game (or at least the first quarter).

On another note, Al Davis is now officially certifiably insane.

Something I've been meaning to say since the news broke.

There's been a lot that's been said about John Madden's retirement, and I could repeat everything that's been said about how beloved he was (not so much in my household, but that may be because he made all the obvious things he said obvious) or his alleged man-crush on Brett Favre or his impact on football and the broadcasting profession or his retirement's impact on NBC, the NFL and its network, and the careers of Cris Collinsworth, Al Michaels, and Frank Caliendo.

But let me just say this about replacement Collinsworth.

NBC was caught off guard by Madden's retirement, but they were not caught unprepared.

That said, I have to agree with what Curt Smith had to say about Harry Kalas: "[Collinsworth] will succeed [Madden]. None will replace him."

A simple game of connect-the-dots.

How was it possible that despite a far less compelling matchup than last year, including the until-recently laughable Arizona Cardinals, the Super Bowl still drew a bigger audience than last year?

Amidst people crowing "when it's the Super Bowl the teams are irrelevant", I was wondering why more attention wasn't paid to the surprisingly large female audience - which seemed to explain the large audience but gave me more questions than answers. Where did all these women come from all of a sudden?

I may have a partial answer, at least. (Courtesy Fang's Bites.)

Another thing about the Super Bowl that NO ONE has noticed...

Everywhere I've gone, starting with the announcing team itself, people have lamented that if James Harrison's long touchdown run to end the first half was called down at the 1, time would have run out and the play would have been for nothing.

Um... has anyone actually seen the play, and watched the clock, and the exact moment when the clock ran out?

THERE WOULD STILL BE ONE OR TWO SECONDS ON THE CLOCK! Watch that clock in the video below!

Quick thoughts on the Super Bowl

• If I were putting together NBC's opening sequence, I would have made a few more changes to the opening song. For example, instead of "waiting all day", how about "waiting all year"? And how can you pass up the fact that "forty-three" rhymes with "NBC" and so could have been inserted into the song with few other changes? You won't get anything like this until Super Bowl 70!
• I hate to disagree with Roger Goodell, but this game did not top last year's game. This game does have the advantage over Super Bowl XLII, and XXXVIII, that the first half was not boring as hell. But while this game did produce some landmark, all-time Super Bowl plays, those individual marks can't really compare with a great game - this game was just like any other Super Bowl from a pre-game angle standpoint, unlike XLII, and the Cinderella team didn't win, which hurts its standing - in fact I was rooting for Pittsburgh to pull out the win just because it would have been too bizarre otherwise. There are in fact some similarities with XXXVIII, another game people wondered about being the best Super Bowl ever. One of these days I need to go over the game film, or at least the NFL Films distillations, or even compact game stories, of every Super Bowl and rank the greatest ever. FSN's "The Sports List" did a ranking probably around the time of XL, maybe even before XXXVIII. Obviously, that list needs a serious update.
• Is it too early to start talking about Ben Roethlisberger's Hall of Fame credentials? Remember, in the lead-up to the Super Bowl people were talking about Kurt Warner's Hall of Fame credentials now that he had reached three Super Bowls with two different teams. Now Roethlisberger has been to one fewer Super Bowl and won two, becoming just the tenth QB in NFL history to do so, and not completely throwing up in the second. Not to mention his leadership in the regular season. If there's a knock against him it's that he's leading a team composed of a bunch of parts that might win Super Bowls without him, but then again that was the knock against Tom Brady for a while as well. If he so far as makes one more Super Bowl, is he a shoo-in for the Hall? And is it possible that his final drive in this game, which had Steve Young positively salivating on ESPN's NFL Primetime, is the one that puts him in the Hall?
• Speaking of ESPN, and lists, about your "Top 10" Super Bowl plays: Your own analysts, who clamored for Manning-to-Tyree to beat out Roethlisberger-to-Holmes for #1, are correct. What you should have done was rank the Harrison INT return significantly further back, in the middle or even near the back, since it was one of those sideshow gimmicky plays that come out of the blue every once in a while in the Super Bowl. By ranking it #3, you forced the Holmes play to #1 to avoid consecutive plays from the same game. Probably the main reason you rated the Holmes play #1 was because it actually scored the game-winning TD, but it arguably makes Manning-to-Tyree greater that it attained such greatness without actually scoring. (Incidentially, initially I rendered "Holmes" as "Burress". What does that tell you?)
• Am I the only one who noticed that the clock briefly stopped at two minutes left in the game when Roethlisberger barely got a play off, then started again as the clock operator realized there was a play going on, and the discrepancy was never corrected? How might that have influenced Arizona's final drive? The game-ending fumble would have only occured with two seconds or so left on the clock! You think Arizona would be working a bit quicker? And am I the only one who thinks that on the play to the 5 on Pittsburgh's final drive, the main reason the Steelers called a timeout was that the receiver (I think it was Holmes) was a little lazy getting back to the line of scrimmage, as though he didn't quite realize the situation? The Steelers might have needed that timeout to set up a field goal with a few seconds left on the clock if the Cardinals had been able to get a stop. I think there was one other "Am I the only one who noticed that" in there, but damned if I can remember it now.

I have plenty to say about the ads in a later post, where I hope to hand out awards for the ads, and some comments on NBC's modified banner for the game, which is also an opportunity to talk about ESPN's new tennis banner it broke out at the Aussie Open. There were a LOT of great ads in the second half of this game. Lineal titles updated for the offseason.

More football than you'd ever expect two days before the Super Bowl

This post is now hosted only on the new site.

Because I just wasted my free time on my first day back at school...

...this is the only post you get from me today.

Because of all my college football stuff, I've sort of been growing distant from the NFL Lineal Title (the Colts' long reign hasn't helped). During the before-the-bowls interregnum, I've been neglecting to update it at all. That changes now. However, the college lineal titles aren't updated until after the National Championship.

Da Blog's Predictions for 2009

Because a lot of sites I visit are putting up predictions for the new year, so am I, and I'll check back in at year's end to see how I did:

• The year in sports is a massive disappointment. The Super Bowl pits the Dolphins against the Vikings. North Carolina, after an undefeated regular season, loses in the Final Four and the national championship pits UCLA against UConn. The game is a laugher. Cleveland beats San Antonio in the NBA Finals; the Knicks just barely miss the playoffs and LeBron James signs a contract extention to stay in Cleveland after winning his first championship. Mike D'Antoni agrees to a buyout soon thereafter to coach LeBron in Cleveland, condemning the Knicks to a decade of mediocrity. The Stanley Cup Playoffs pit the Calgary Flames against the Montreal Canadiens, and America tunes out. So does Canada when it turns into a four-game sweep that's not that close. Neither the Red Sox nor Yankees make the ALCS, and one of them misses the playoffs as Tampa Bay and Philadelphia square off again in the World Series.
• Tiger Woods comes back too soon, finishing second in the Masters, and misses most of 2009, raising concerns he may retire. Jimmie Johnson wins yet another Sprint Cup in a laugher, and by the end of the season he's winning races basically by showing up, with all the teams quitting. Rafael Nadal is the only player to win at least two majors of either gender, and Roger Federer never makes a major final. USC, Cincinnati, and Alabama are the only three undefeated teams by week 4; they stay that way through the end, and USC routs Alabama in the national championship. There are no BCS buster mid-majors. At least one minor league cancels either the 2009 or 2010 season, and at least one MLS team folds. The IRL cuts back drastically on the 2010 season, and doesn't so much pass NASCAR as NASCAR passes it backwards. By 2012, though, the IRL is back to 2008 levels, and returns to ESPN in 2018. UFC effectively becomes NASCAR's replacement as one of the four major sports, and shows it wasn't moving to pay-per-view that killed boxing.
• The Olympics moves to ESPN and ABC after landing in Chicago. NBC immediately pulls out of the NHL following the 2009-2010 season. ESPN becomes the exclusive cable home of the NHL (beyond NHL Network) after 2011.
• The Saints challenge for the NFC South, and the Lions are at least respectable. Brett Favre retires and the Jets become the new Lions. Matt Cassel bolts from New England to join the Jaguars, who instantly become a Super Bowl contender. Tom Brady comes back a clearly different player, and the Pats begin a slow slide into mediocrity. The Cowboys self-destruct and don't even challenge for the playoffs. The Titans trade Vince Young to Houston in the offseason.
• Barack Obama finds himself frazzled by the vexing economic crisis and various foreign crises. Troops are out of Iraq by June, but by August Iraq is effectively ruled by several cabals of warlords. Obama uses the money freed up by exiting Iraq to institute his own version of the New Deal, but it doesn't work very well. Meanwhile little actual "change" happens, even from the politics of the last eight years, and when Obama calls in the military to break up a food riot in November, many in his own party compare him to Bush, and the "netroots" begin forming their own nascent political movement for 2012.
• By 2012, that movement has gained enough steam to attract attention (and support) from both major parties. However, the economic crisis has only gotten worse and the US has effectively become a vassal state of China... and the Republicans, as a result, prove far more resilient than expected after adopting a bizarre fascist-anarchist policy, a strange kitbashing of the politics of Ron Paul and George W. Bush. Before 2020, World War III has erupted, and America is Nazi Germany after the GOP win the 2012 elections, the last to be held under the Constitution of 1776. The 2016 Olympics become America's 1936 Munich Games, and come complete with a past-his-prime Michael Phelps being dragged back to the pool. The world comes out of the war with the economy back on track, but set back to the Middle Ages if not before. China, India, and Japan become the new "modern" world powers with Depression-era technology, set back from reaching 1950s-era technology by the ravages to the environment. The Amazon becomes a desert; Canada and Russia become the world's new breadbasket.
• The Internet undergoes its latest metamorphosis. By the end of the year, it is as good at watching video as the average television. In the short term, it only benefits from the deepening economic crisis. When the Obama administration passes a universal broadband bill, it sparks an Internet revolution, and blogs become the new MySpace, since you can at least theoretically make money off them. Internet advertising finally becomes viable, if only because nothing else is.
• Webcomics undergo an explosion during this time. A Penny Arcade TV series is commissioned for Cartoon Network's Adult Swim block by year's end. By 2010, a Girl Genius movie is in development, and rumors of an Order of the Stick movie persist as well. Sandsday becomes the biggest new thing in webcomics, and by year's end I'm fighting off TV series offers of my own.
• Da Blog attracts two huge followings in particular: people looking for webcomics criticism, who singlehandedly make it ten times more popular than Websnark ever was, rendering my getting a real job unnecessary, and people looking for straight-dope political analysis. Da Blog plays a significant role in attracting new audiences to politics, healing the rifts of our political landscape, and shaping the aforementioned nascent political movement.

And that just left me incredibly drained and depressed. I think it's better if I don't try to predict what happens, and just try and enjoy the ride. You should try it some time.

In case you were wondering...

I was right. The NFL was freaking out over having the slightest chance of Dolphins-Jets being made mostly (not even entirely) irrelevant by game time.

Another reason the NFL may have forgone Dolphins-Jets on Sunday night?

The parade of New York columnists complaining about moving a cold-weather game to the nighttime in reference to Panthers-Giants.

That may have also killed Giants-Vikings (although that's in a dome) and even Cowboys-Eagles if arcane rules didn't do so.

Running Playoff and SNF Week 17 Watch

I lost the first version of this post. This is a quick update. Will update this post as the day progresses. Maybe.
-Colts and Ravens improved their standing, but a Colts loss next week could still bring them down to a tiebreaker. Tiebreak checks later. Dolphins and Pats both win, Jets playing Seahawks.
-Chargers took care of their half. Can the Bills beat the Broncos?
-Titans lock up the 1 seed, Steelers the 2.
-Falcons-Vikings, Eagles-Redskins on now. Bucs and Cowboys both lost, so the Redskins aren't out yet.
-If an NFC game can be selected, don't expect an announcement on FNIA like last year.

Broncos leading Bills, but barely. Seahawks up by a touchdown over Jets. Redskins up on Vikings but Falcons up on Vikings, which would eliminate the 'Skins.

AFC East Tiebreakers: If Jets beat Miami next week they hold tiebreaker over Pats who hold tiebreak over Dolphins, assuming all three are tied with each other (a possibility with the Jets losing), otherwise all three are 1-1 against each of the other two. If the Dolphins and Pats win next week the division records will all be 4-2, if the Jets win they will hold the division tiebreaker, if the Pats lose and the Dolphins win the Pats lose the division tiebreaker.

Right now the following scenarios are possible: If the Jets lose today:
-Jets win, Patriots lose. Three-way tie goes to Jets for division. Pats and Dolphins go to common games. More on that later.
-Jets win, Patriots win. Pats win division outright. Jets win tiebreak over Dolphins.
-Dolphins win, Patriots win. Pats and Dolphins go to common games for division. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
-Dolphins win, Patriots lose. Dolphins win division outright. Pats first choice of NFC East for wild card spot with six losses. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
The Seahawks appear to be wrapping up the game.

Pats-Dolphins common games: Pats 7-1, Dolphins 7-1 outside division. Dolphins would hold conference tiebreaker.

If Colts lose next week, Ravens, Dolphins, Pats win, Colts-Ravens-Pats three-way, one team must be eliminated to determine wild card. Indy beat both teams so they win the head-to-head sweep and are in the playoffs. No Titans-Colts next week on SNF. Ravens would hold the conference games tiebreak over Patriots, but are still vulnerable to a loss next week.

Seattle beats the Jets. Buffalo leading Denver by a touchdown. Washington leading by a touchdown but Atlanta running away with it over the Vikings.

If Pats lose next week Dolphins-Jets is for division. If current score holds Chargers-Broncos will also be for division. If NFC game can't be selected it will be one of those two. My pick is Dolphins-Jets, because of the Favre factor and because they're better teams.

Vikings are in big trouble unless the Packers win Monday night. Bucs can't win division but the dream is still alive for the Falcons to continue the last-one-year-first-the-next trend. Assuming the Falcons go on to win, the Redskins are out and they will have been in the process of eliminating the Eagles as well, and a Packers win would eliminate the Bears entirely.

Falcons may be clinching themselves a playoff spot, in all practicality. The schedule breaks down such that I think they are cinching up the common games tiebreaker over the Bucs. Even if Dallas wins next week, which would mean they would likely have a conference games tiebreaker, the Falcons would be in by virtue of that tiebreaker - assuming the Bears lose.

If current scores hold, not even Cowboys-Eagles may look as attractive as NBC would like, if the Eagles are already out of the playoffs, and if the Bears lose I think that would lock up a playoff spot for the Cowboys, a risk NBC can't take if they have to make their pick before MNF. Giants-Vikings has the same pitfall, and if current scores hold the Vikings will have lost and won't have a bye to play for.

Buffalo knocks off Denver, but it's the other two games I'm watching for SNF/NFC purposes.

Atlanta knocks off Minnesota. That essentially locks up a playoff spot for them and puts the Bucs in big trouble, and it eliminates the Redskins. The Eagles MIGHT still be alive for a playoff spot, as they would still be only a half game behind the Cowboys and Bucs. Beat the Boys and hope for a Bucs loss, and the Eagles are in the playoffs.

Philly making one last push - if they win this it would actually be worse for Cowboys-Eagles as the Eagles would be playing for nothing. They fail. But if the Bears win two straight it could render Cowboys-Eagles irrelevant by the end of the day. Two Bears wins put them at 10-6, and the best the Eagles could hope for is 9-6-1. We could see a Bears-Falcons-Cowboys three-way tie, though, and Cowboys would win the conference tiebreaker for the first spot.

Honestly, the Favre factor means Dolphins-Jets could be selected even if the NFL can select an NFC game. Especially if the Bears win on Monday Night and create the possibility that the Eagles won't have anything to play for by Sunday night. With six losses, the Jets will still have something to play for even if the Patriots win next week. The Ravens could lose, and the Jets would have the conference games tiebreaker. Or the Ravens could win, and the Jets really would have nothing to play for. Giants-Vikings is probably out with the Vikings having no chance to steal the 2 seed, meaning the Giants will have nothing to play for no matter what happens tonight, and the Vikings will have nothing to play for if the Packers win Monday night.

Final prediction: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, but I would be far from surprised to see Cowboys-Eagles selected.

Actual selection: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers. Huh? Either NBC and the NFL really don't want to put the Dolphins on or they're really scared about the game being rendered irrelevant for at least one team by game time. If the latter, we still don't know if NBC could have selected an NFC game.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 15

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I'm assuming that's still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams' number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there's no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year's Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Jets (v. Miami)-Patriots (@Bills)-Dolphins three-way tie, Bills out.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it, and the Ravens are out on a tiebreaker (lost to the Steelers both times).
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot, and they lose the common games tiebreaker.
• AFC West: Chargers (v. Denver) hanging by the division tiebreaker, and the team they play is the division leader. Hmm. But again, the Chargers would need to win out and the Broncos lose out - but for that to matter, it only needs to happen this week.
• AFC Wild Card: The Colts (v. Titans) and either the Ravens (v. Jacksonville) or one of the AFC East losers would get the nod if the season ended today. The AFC East losers are a game back. Texans hanging by a tiebreak, and would need the Ravens, Patriots, and eventual Dolphins-Jets loser to all lose two games. Jets would beat the Patriots in the divisional record tiebreaker, Dolphins-Patriots would come down to strength of victory or beyond. Texans can't have Dolphins winning strength of victory because that would give Ravens head-to-head sweep; otherwise, Ravens conference record would eliminate the Texans anyway.
• AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Titans have the lead over the Steelers (v. Cleveland) for the #1, but only one game, and they play each other this week in a game that pretty much is for the #1 unless the Steelers win that game, then lose the next week and the Titans win it. Steelers have a two-game lead for the #2 over the eventual AFC East winner, and beat the Pats outright, and the other two have at least four conference losses each to Pittsburgh's one.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Eagles out by half a game, and the Cowboys lose the common games tiebreaker.
• NFC North: Vikings (v. NY Giants) lead, Bears (@Texans) a game back. If Bears lose to Packers on MNF it cinches the North for the Vikings by giving them the division tiebreaker, but they still need to tread lightly because their record against the NFC South loses them the common games tiebreaker.
• NFC South: Panthers (@New Orleans) have a two-game lead over the Bucs (v. Oakland) and Falcons (v. St. Louis). All three season series split, all three division records would be 3-3, all three would have 7-1 records against other common opponents, Bucs and Falcons would both eliminate Panthers with better conference records.
• NFC West: Cardinals clinched.
• NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Bucs, Cowboys (@Philadelphia), or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Eagles a half-game back, Bears a full game back, Redskins (@San Francisco) and Saints both hang on tiebreakers. If Bucs and Falcons both lose out, that would come down to strength of victory or beyond; Saints lost more than one game to the common opponents so they're out. A Redskins-Cowboys tiebreaker scenario would involve the Cowboys losing to the Eagles and the Redskins beating them, putting the Eagles at 9-6-1 compared to the Cowboys' and Redskins' 9-7 records and forcing the Bucs and Falcons to both lose out for the Redskins to have a remote shot, although they would win the conference tiebreaker over Dallas and whoever won the strength of victory tiebreaker between the Bucs and Falcons. I don't have time to consider how the Bears would factor into the tiebreakers.
• NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Giants and Panthers tied, so this weekend's Sunday night game is for the #1 seed. The loser of that game currently holds a two-game edge over the Vikings, who beat Carolina and would have to beat New York.
• Analysis: Through next week, there have been 22 games that would have been on Fox aired instead on one of the three primetime partners, compared to 19 for CBS. A recent dispute between Newsday columnist Neil Best and Dallas Morning News columnist Barry Horn may have brought to light yet another rule I haven't accounted for: the idea that the NFL must take a game from CBS this week. It makes no sense that this would only come to light now, as it necessitates only two or three balances: 21-21, or 22-20 one way or the other. For a game that matters in terms of putting both teams in the playoffs, Dolphins-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles, and depending on what happens this weekend, Chargers-Broncos would seem to be the smart plays, and Cowboys-Eagles would be a shoo-in if this alleged rule were in place. If NBC just wants good teams, Giants-Vikings and a replay of Colts-Titans are also in play; if things break down right next week, Giants-Vikings may be a more impressive NFC game. Based on behavior last year, if NBC has to select an AFC game Colts-Titans is very promising, assuming the Colts don't find themselves in the playoffs already, and if the Pats win this week NBC may run scared from them potentially winning again next week (even though a tiebreak might still be in play) and run to the potentially more attractive Colts-Titans game. I'll live-blog on Sunday again this year, but I probably won't be able to catch another announcement on "FNIA".

Predictions for SportsCenter's "Top 10 Games" of 2008

In case you haven't heard, this was a particularly exciting year in sports. When ESPN's "SportsCenter" does its annual "Top 10 Games" countdown, they could easily extend it to a Top 20. With so many great games, I've taken it upon myself to take my own stab at mimicking the ESPN list and what it might look like.

Between some college football playoff-related features and Da Blog's regular features, I think it's reasonable to schedule the College Football Rankings' release, as well as the bowl schedule, for Thursday.

#10: Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, men's basketball gold medal match, USA v. Spain. The "Redeem Team" lives up to their name in a game Bill Simmons called "one of the 10 most dramatic basketball games of my lifetime. And nobody gave a crap or even knew. The game started at 2:30 in the morning ET and vanished into thin air. Only West Coasters and super-diehards stayed up to see it."

#9: NHL Hockey, Winter Classic, Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres. Could the NHL have asked for anything less than a shootout from the first (true) Winter Classic?

#8: College football, SEC Championship Game, Florida v. Alabama. If the regular season is a playoff, this was its semifinal - and it certainly played like one.

#7: MLB Baseball, ALCS Game 5, Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox. For the moment, just forget about the fact the Sox couldn't come all the way back to win the series.

#6: Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, swimming, 4x100m freestyle relay OR 100m butterfly OR 4x100m medley relay. The first two were dramatic finishes on Michael Phelps' road to Mark Spitz's record. The last was the one that broke it and had an exciting finish of its own. And I only have it at #6.

#5: College football, Texas @ Texas Tech. The Red Raiders came out to an early lead, only to see Texas come storming back to take a lead of its own. In the end, Texas Tech had the play of the year, and as it turned out, the one that kept Texas out of the National Championship Game.

#4: Wimbledon, men's final, Roger Federer v. Rafael Nadal. This and the next two I could have put in any order. A five-set, record-length classic that ended with Nadal finally getting the best of Federer away from clay.

#3: Men's college basketball, NCAA Tournament Final, Kansas v. Memphis. Finally, a National Championship game that lives up to being the culmination of March Madness instead of being a complete anticlimax!

#2: US Open Golf, playoff, Tiger Woods v. Rocco Mediate. 19 holes of pure tension, as basically an unknown gives Tiger every inch of challenge he has, and brings out Tiger's best to put him on top. And Tiger was injured to the extent it's still the last event he's played!

#1: NFL Football, Super Bowl XLII, New England Patriots v. New York Giants. Perhaps the greatest iteration ever of the biggest sporting event of every year? How can it not be #1?

Honorable Mentions: IRL racing, Indy Japan 300 (Danica wins!); Euro 2008 quarterfinal, Croatia v. Turkey (or was it the semis, where Germany beat Turkey? Basically a sop to my soccer-crazed dad anyway); MLB Home Run Derby; ArenaBowl XXII, Soul v. SaberCats (about the only thing that could make it better is if it were the last one); some NBA game I'm forgetting; some obscure game I never heard of or just didn't watch (possibly from MMA, boxing, the LLWS, Fresno State's run, the WNBA, MLS, or the like)

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I'm assuming that's still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams' number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Selected game: Carolina @ NY Giants.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there's no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year's Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Jets-Patriots-Dolphins three-way tie, Bills two back. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot, and they lose the common games tiebreaker.
• AFC West: Chargers hanging by the division tiebreaker, and play division leader Denver. Hmm. But again, the Chargers would need to win out and the Broncos lose out.
• AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The AFC East losers are a game back. Dolphins-Jets and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Bills and Texans also waiting in the wings, Chargers need a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Eagles out by half a game, and the Cowboys lose the common games tiebreaker. The Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers hanging on by a tiebreaker. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
• NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers leading, the Bucs one back, the Falcons two, and the Saints hanging on by a tiebreaker. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers lost both games to them so they're out. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Bucs and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Eagles a half-game back, Redskins, Bears, Saints a full game back. Packers and 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 picks

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: 5-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers (9-3)-Giants (11-2) or Eagles (7-5-1)-Redskins (7-6) (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• "That's my story and I'm sticking to it"'s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday's Watch and their records: Cardinals (8-5)-Patriots (8-5), Bills (6-7)-Broncos (8-5), Falcons (8-5)-Vikings (8-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Affects both the tentative game and the most likely flex game.
• Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn't protected it's in. If it is, the Falcons did what the other games needed and lost, and things broke down just right for Cardinals-Patriots and Falcons-Vikings to pull even. I give the edge to Falcons-Vikings because they're more attractive and the Cardinals have locked up the NFC West, so Falcons-Vikings has the edge that both teams have playoff implications.
• Final prediction: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants, or if that game is protected, Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings.
• Current situation: No announcement yet to my knowledge, which is telling. Either NBC is waiting on tonight's game to tell them whether to go with the Falcons (for whatever reason), or NBC is willing to go someplace other than Panthers-Giants if the Panthers lose.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I'm assuming that's still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams' number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: 4-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• "That's my story and I'm sticking to it"'s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos and Falcons-Vikings are still at least close. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be in it as well. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.
• Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn't protected I might as well pick it now. If it is, there are four games that are very close, and Falcons-Vikings is probably the leader in the clubhouse at 8-4 v. 7-5. Cardinals-Patriots is next at 7-5 @ 7-5, then Eagles-Redskins at 6-5-1 @ 7-5, then Bills-Broncos at 6-6 @ 7-5. For any of these games to have a shot, Panthers-Giants must be protected and the Falcons, at the very least, must lose. A Falcons loss, a Vikings win, and wins by the Cardinals and Patriots would put those two games on even footing; Bills-Broncos needs a perfect scenario (Falcons and Vikings losses, Bills and Broncos wins), but Eagles-Redskins might get close enough to pull a pretty good case that the Eagles should have won "The Tie" and the accounting should be even.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there's no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year's Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone's game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats and Dolphins a game back, and the Bills a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
• AFC West: Chiefs out, Raiders hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is three games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders are only a game behind the Chargers.
• AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Patriots are a game back, and the Bills are waiting in the wings. Both East games and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals out, Chargers, Jags, Browns need a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Redskins hanging on by a tiebreaker and the Eagles out by half a game. The Giants play the Vikings while the Cowboys face the Eagles.
• NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers two, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
• NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints three back. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers are the only other team with a shot. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Bears and Saints waiting in the wings. Packers three back, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Thanksgiving Day Sports Watcher

Watch Titans-Lions, Seahawks-Cowboys, and Cardinals-Eagles.

Hey, it's what you're doing anyway.

Providence @ Baylor is on ESPN2 at 8:30 PM PT for those of you who have been waiting for the debut of college basketball on the Watcher.

Not sure if I'll have a watcher for the rest of the weekend.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

NBC's Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it "tentatively" schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in "flex" weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I'm assuming that's still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams' number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11 (as did TMS&ISTI): so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And with the Cowboys energized by the return of Tony Romo, this game will be hard to beat on its own merits. Despite what I said last week, 10-1 v. 7-4 is pretty good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• "That's my story and I'm sticking to it"'s protections: None.
• Other possible games: Bucs-Falcons looks great, but they're running in a dead heat with Steelers-Ravens if that game isn't protected. Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers both trail those two, and may be widening a bit too close for comfort. Vikings-Cardinals is still a dark horse, but realistically it's out.
• Analysis: Giants-Cowboys is lopsided enough that a Cowboys loss can still open things up for a mathematically inferior game, but it has two major advantages: name value and being the tentative game. Bucs-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens are the only major threats to unseat it. Both are 3-loss teams v. 4-loss teams; if the Cowboys lose, the Giants win, and both teams in either matchup win, they would actually be looking at the same average number of losses. The Cowboys loss would be at home to Seattle, and there may be a feeling that the 'Boys would logically have trouble on the road at Pittsburgh next week if that were to happen. And the Steelers are a name team while the Falcons have the draw of Matt Ryan. And if Bills-Jets came close enough NBC might be tempted at the prospect of Brett Favre in primetime. But in a season this flex-averse? With two name teams from football's best division?
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: 4-7 @ 8-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• "That's my story and I'm sticking to it"'s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos is still nominally in it, while Falcons-Vikings stands in between. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be about on par with Falcons-Vikings. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there's no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year's Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone's game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats a game back, and the other two a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are running away with it, with the Steelers holding the one-game edge and the Bengals out. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
• AFC West: Every team is theoretically in it, with the Chiefs hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is two games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders (who play the Bucs) are creeping up.
• AFC Wild Card: Any two of the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Bills are a game back, with the Browns, Jags, and Chargers all losing this week. Their respective games are in trouble, but both East games and Titans-Colts are still strong. Chiefs out, Bengals hanging on by half a game.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys. The Giants play the Vikings but the Redskins play the 49ers and the Cowboys face the Eagles.
• NFC North: Bears and Vikings tied, Pack a game back, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
• NFC South: Every team within two games, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints waiting in the wings. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the Seahawks and Rams need tiebreakers, which the Rams won't get (too many division losses already). Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Redskins, Cowboys, or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Bears-Vikings loser a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Packers waiting in the wings. Seahawks, Rams, Lions out, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 picks

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot. 7-4 v. 2-9? Please.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS). Accurate according to this.
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday's Watch and their records: Redskins (7-4)-Ravens (7-4), Eagles (5-5-1)-Giants (10-1), Falcons (7-4)-Saints (5-5), Dolphins (6-5)-Bills (6-5), Titans (10-1)-Browns (4-7).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Saints can move up or down, but it probably doesn't matter.
• Analysis: I said on Wednesday that this was Redskins-Ravens' to lose, and both teams won. If NBC wanted to swerve us it would probably take a Saints victory on Monday night to produce a game only a half-game worse, but even then it's unlikely. If it's playoff battles NBC wants, the Redskins are in the thick of a wild card battle and the Ravens have a shot at the AFC North, yet are also far from secure for the wild card. If NBC wants to hold on to the possibility of flexing in either team later, the only real flexible game either team has the rest of the way, including Week 17, is next week when Giants-Cowboys will likely keep its spot, and neither team is anywhere near the limit anyway. If NBC keeps a godawful Patriots-Seahawks matchup ("hey, we get to see Matt Cassel!") with a game like Redskins-Ravens on the table (and I'm a Seattlite), I might just give up. The fact I'm even considering the possibility and building such an ironclad case for flexing should tell you a lot. (Go on. The flex button won't hurt you.)
• Final prediction: Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens.